2019 – The Year of Probability

Nobody knows if the Brexit is beneficial for anyone or if it only brings disadvantages. The experts believe that it will “probably” have a negative impact on everyone involved. No matter in which field you move today, there is no more collateral. It is therefore traded with probabilities.

These probabilities have already found their way into two major scientific areas and are shaping their lives there. On the one hand, this is quantum mechanics, in which the locality of an electron can only be determined after a certain probability, and on the other hand it is artificial intelligence, in which patterns are also recognized only with a certain probability. For example. the handwritten numbers 0-9 are now recognized with a probability of 99.5% by an electronic system.

Forecasts for the year 2019 and beyond are therefore only made more serious about probabilities. Whether US President Trump is voted out, whether a new Brexit poll is coming to fruition, or whether China is building a military base in Norway can only be statistically determined.

There are two main parameters for probability and that is time and chance. The more time available, the greater the likelihood of an event occurring. If I am faced with a career choice and have a lot of time, I probably get a better job than when I’m under pressure. The same applies to the partner choice. Anyone who wants to commit to early youth has fewer choices. The same applies to the consumer market. The smartphone producers have to bring a new product to the market every year, otherwise they will be out of the race. The development time is getting shorter and shorter and thus the likelihood of bringing an innovative product is getting lower and lower. You can see that now, because the smart devices of the individual producers hardly differ anymore. The likelihood that something completely new will happen in 2019 is therefore low.

The term “unearned income” has been known for decades and largely determines the social level in which we live. Those who have more money can afford more and thus have a higher standard of living. Self-realization is closer. In the meantime, most people in the industrialized nations have reached a high level of prosperity. The price was and is work performance. Working hours up to 60 hours were still common in the last century. Nevertheless, in retrospect, one has the impression that people had more time. The “free time” has thus fallen significantly and has become almost a luxury item. If you can say that today, you have time, you are almost a member of an elite group. Times when I’m not stranger are becoming more and more valuable.

The coincidence is well proven mathematically, in everyday life he remains what he is. Any event that suddenly exists without any planning and announcement. When I’m in the pedestrian zone and meet a friend by chance, that’s a coincidence, but the chances were great. If I meet a friend in Handenberg this is also a coincidence – but with a very low probability. The coincidence therefore depends on the offer, which gives you the environment. The more “rich” the environment is, the more likely and more random the events will be. That you happen to find something suitable in the Amazon store corresponds to a high probability.

In a pluralistic, liberal and consumerist society, there is abundance in all areas. After all, we already have 7 billion people, have 1 billion cars and 7 billion mobile phones. These numbers alone indicate that chance is an accumulation.

Now, if probability arises from the two components time and chance, then we can assume that in the future, due to frequent coincidences, the probabilities become higher and, due to lack of time, the likelihood for the occurrence of events again decreases.

If I want to bring more security into my life or into my company, then I need time and a “rich” environment. Time arises when I can omit something, can do without it or even not accept it. As long as the slogan is “time is money” it will not be anymore. Personally, I assume that this fixed assumption will soon be a thing of the past anyway. In this regard, an unconditional basic income is in discussion. The probability that we get this 2019 is still relatively low. Having time brings quality of life and satisfies our need for security because it increases the odds.

Randomness accumulates when there are many possibilities at the same time. In Handenberg, there are just 1200 people, while in pedestrian zones millions of them move. Personally, I can increase my chances of chance if I am interested in many interdisciplinary topics. Personally, I have experienced a great expansion as a computer scientist by studying theology. If one understands the basic mechanics of religions, one also realizes that the current technological development is something very religious. This allows me to better recognize developments and it happens that more and more links are created.

Now there is a very special kind of coincidence. Those who trigger the same perception from completely different realities at the same time. I sit on my home trainer, look out the window and watch pigeons settle on the windowsill. At the same time I see in my TV series also pigeons flying in front of a window. Such coincidence has C.G. Jung already studied at the beginning of the 20th century and gave them the name synchronicity. We experience such moments of synchronicity again and again, and if you pay attention (has time) and live in a rich environment (chance), that happens more often. Synchronicities show one and the same topic from different perspectives.

At the end of this blog, I thank you for 1 year of faithful readership and I wish you much time for the year 2019, so that increase the probabilities and thus more security in life.

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